SUN UPDATE: Front Range Forecast: Severe for Independence Day


After a quiet weekend, severe weather returns for Independence Day.

Sunday update:

Just a heads up, a full weather report will be released on Monday, July 3rd so I can get all the details right. The SPC (updated Figure 3) mapped a large area of ​​northern and eastern Colorado with a slight risk (2 out of 5) of severe weather on Independence Day. We still have two days to go – this could become a dangerous weather day. Stay tuned…

Updated Figure 3: SPC Severe Weather Forecast for Independence Day from NOAA

Update end of Sunday.

Friday update:

There were more than 25 reports of large hail south of Longmont, Denver and east. It was a very active day. There is a marginal risk (1 in 5) on the Front Range again today and a slight risk (2 in 5) south and off east of Denver. The danger is mainly large hail except in the Southeast and East where there is also a risk of tornadoes.

After Friday, things cool off and temperatures become warm to seasonable with a few thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Independence Day forecast:

At 9pm in Longmont and Broomfield, the temperature should be around 70°F. Cloud cover should be around 75% with a 25% chance of storms (best chance of a thunderstorm is around 3-5pm). Winds at 9 p.m. should be east at 5 mph (unless a rogue storm passes through.

Updated Figure 2: Severe weather forecasts from SPC and NOAA.

End of Friday.

Wednesday update:

The West Coast Basin is now approaching. A cold front will bring plenty of moisture on Thursday. The SPC (Update Figure 1) issued a marginal (1 out of 5) and slight (2 out of 5) risk of severe weather for most of the region on Thursday. There is a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles anywhere from just north of Boulder and Niwot into Wyoming and beyond the Plains. Large, damaging hailstones are also likely to fall on the area. This area may expand later in the morning as more data comes in, but I’m headed back to the campground and won’t be able to update here. Keep your app notifications lively and vibrant!

Updated Figure 1: Thursday severe weather forecast map from SPC.

Updated at the end of Wednesday.

Discussing expectations:

A large ridge (blue line Figure 2) gives us three days of real heat. Lurking on the west coast is a small trough (red line Figure 2) that will approach the state by Thursday. This will result in lower temperatures coming in and a chance of rain/storms.

Figure 1_06262023
Figure 1: Ten-day graphical forecast for Denver from

Figure 2_06262023
Figure 2: 500 mb upper air forecast map for Monday from GFS and

Longer term forecast:

Our next chance for (not intense) convection comes on Wednesday as the low finally begins to approach and some moisture returns (Figure 3). A trough will be overhead by Thursday/Friday (Figure 4) giving us another period of cool, wet weather (Figure 1). However, during the next five days, rain will be limited to locations east of the dividing line. Enjoy the summer!

Figure 4_06262023
Figure 3: SPC severe weather forecast for Wednesday from NOAA.

Figure 3_06262023
Figure 4: 500 mb upper air forecast map for Friday from GFS and

Figure 5_06262023
Figure 5: 5-day total precipitation forecast from GFS and

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