Sunday Updates – Finger Lakes Weather

Sunday Updates – Finger Lakes Weather

Weather forecast map for the Finger Lakes showing four areas with unique snowfall characteristics and forecasts Monday night and Tuesday morning, as described further in the text of the blog post.
The Finger Lakes region will be on the northern edge of a winter storm Monday night and Tuesday morning, bringing large variations in snow amounts and significant uncertainty in the finer details.

A fast-moving but heavy snow event will cross the Finger Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the forecast remains particularly challenging.

Uncertainty remains high about exact snow amounts There will be no specific snow amount forecasts in this blog post. Instead, I’d like to highlight four regions across the Finger Lakes region and the outlook and potential across those regions. I would also like to explain why this system is particularly difficult.

First, some basics:

when:

Snow isn’t even expected to reach the Finger Lakes area Near or after midnight Monday. The snow will continue until Tuesday morning, but it should happen It’s usually over by noon. the Commuting on Tuesday morning will be greatly affected in some areas.

Overall picture:

Fast-moving low pressure will track across the mid-Atlantic and move quickly offshore southern New England. The weather is favorable for A thick band of snow To the north of the depression. This range is expected to be relatively narrow. Dry air and less favorable dynamics just north of the range will cause a A very sharp cut in snow amounts on the northern edge.

A weather graph for the Finger Lakes showing the large differences in snow amounts seen in the European model ensembles, as described in more detail in the text of the blog post.
The routing model is highly variable, which reduces its usefulness in this case. Click to enlarge.

Source of uncertainty:

Deciding where to set up this tape and cut is a bit like walking a tightrope. One small shift in either direction and snow amounts can vary dramatically. Unfortunately, the Finger Lakes region is located in this area where there will be large variations in snow amounts.

It is not surprising that The models are all over the place with snow amounts as a result of. For those forecasts that simply feed model data directly to the audience, or (slightly better) use a combination of model data, there will likely be Wild fluctuations in reported forecasts. Indeed I address the comments this way.

Even model combinations, which take the same model and run it dozens of times with slightly different conditions and equations, are ubiquitous. Usually, 48 hours before the event, there is at least a general trend in selecting groups. However, this is not the case now.

In the overnight period of the European model ensembles, total snow amounts in Ithaca Literally ranging from 0″ to 14″. I took 51 mass projections and divided them into boxes at 3-inch intervals, with special bins for quantities less than 1 inch and more than 9.0 inches.

None of these five funds has a stake exceeding 25%. From the band members. The lowest percentage was in the middle box at 3.1-6 inches. huge 22% showed less than an inch, while 16% showed more than 9.0 inches.

In other words, the model guidance is not a guide this time.

But it is unfortunate that many forecasts stop there, spout numbers, and ignore uncertainty. Not Finger Lakes weather.

How it was predicted:

All weekend, I’ve been mentioning this system in my blog post. I constantly maintained that I felt the center of the heaviest snow would remain in the south, but that it would be a close thing.

I reported on Friday that the models headed south and completely eliminated the threat of snow from our area, but this is known behavior. I indicated that the models would return to the North, and they did. She also stressed that a major snow event is unlikely for most of the Finger Lakes, but if snow reaches this far north, there will be a sharp break in snow amounts.

My goal in forecasting is to go beyond models, use my experience and knowledge of meteorology, and produce actual forecasts. I hope my consistency helps clarify complex expectations.

Weather forecast map for the Finger Lakes showing four areas with unique snowfall characteristics and forecasts Monday night and Tuesday morning, as described further in the text of the blog post.
The Finger Lakes region will be on the northern edge of a winter storm Monday night and Tuesday morning, bringing large variations in snow amounts and significant uncertainty in the finer details. Click to enlarge.

The four regions

For the northern Finger Lakes, it is shaded green On the map that heads this blog post and is republished here, there is Slight chance of any significant snowfall. If the storm moves toward the southern edge of its potential, some of these areas will likely not see even a scrap of snow.

shaded in light blueThe second region extends northeast of the southwestern tier through the heart of the Finger Lakes and includes such sites as Dansville, Penn Yan, Geneva, Auburn, and Syracuse. These areas are likely to be close to sharp cuts of snow The amounts are highly uncertain and are likely to be highly variable. In general, though, the amounts are likely to be minimal with minor impacts.

in Dark blueAreas like Bath, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, and Cortlandt will likely see snow accumulation, but how much snow remains to be seen. A severe outage may have less of an impact in these areas, but the heavier snow core is also unlikely to reach this far north. Moderate travel impacts are likely a good bet for Tuesday morning.

Finally, mowing the southeastern Finger Lakes in parts of Steuben, Chemung, and Tioga counties, Significant snowfall is likely in areas shaded in purple. If the heavier snow core reaches farther north, amounts could easily be near or more than a foot. Even on the southern route, snow is likely. Tuesday morning traffic will be greatly affected.

Where to from here?

I’ve detailed it several times this winter My reasons for making a single map of snow amounts for a specific event. I even drew a snow map Live on video With audience interaction. Due to the timing of this event, I will not be livestreaming the creation of my snow map, but rest assured that I will once again be painstakingly drawing my map and tweaking it until I feel it is just right.

I expect the snow map to be ready A typical blog post on a Monday morning, Which I usually post between 7:30 and 8 AM. Since the map is taking so long, the blog post may be a little delayed, but we’ll see.

Just writing this blog post and creating the two drawings shown took me nearly two hours on Sunday morning. This doesn’t include the constant analysis and monitoring I’ve been doing for days.

Again, my goal is to provide you with the best information possible by going beyond what most modern weather forecasts and reports provide. If you find this approach useful and worthwhile, there you go Several ways you can support my work.

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