The forecast calls for a good chance of above-average winter humidity
People who want winter and snow to come to Durango will have to keep waiting. It’s unclear how long it will last, but this week is expected to be dry and sunny with above-average temperatures and a slight chance of rain starting Friday.
The high mountains in the San Juans have a slight chance of rain on Saturday, but the Durango area looks to remain dry for most of the week, Norv Larson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction, said Friday.
A low pressure trough is expected to deepen over the eastern Pacific early next week, generating southwesterly airflow and high clouds, but the Durango area will not be affected by the activity until Friday or later, he said.
Until then, residents should expect above-normal daytime temperatures in the low to mid 60s, about 5 degrees above normal November temperatures in the area, with season’s nighttime lows in the 20s.
“If you like mild fall weather, we have the weather forecast for you,” Larson said. “However, if you’re looking for precipitation and want to start snowing on the hills, I can’t help you.”
European and Global Forecasting System models show different results for the weekend.
The GFS shows a low pressure trough over the northern Rockies and a closed, deep low pressure system moving off the East Coast, with moisture streams flowing southwest through the low pressure system, Larson said.
These conditions could impact the Durango area with cooler temperatures, cloud cover and light rain this weekend, Larson said. But European models don’t show a low over the Rockies at all, although they do show possible moisture on Friday that will track directly over Durango the rest of the weekend.
“They have some pretty profound differences,” Larson said. “…The fact that the models can’t seem to (come to) any agreement on that, look for some unstable conditions at the end of the week, and it will likely continue into the weekend. But don’t worry about the details.”
If anything is certain, he said, it’s that the Durango area will likely become cloudier over the weekend.
He added that the forecasts for December, January and February from the Climate Prediction Center bode well for winter sports enthusiasts and hot drink lovers, with a 60% chance of above-normal rainfall this winter and near-normal temperatures.
“Kind of pushing it toward that represents a greater opportunity but there’s still a strong chance things could go either way,” he said of winter humidity and temperatures.
He said there could be rain in Durango this weekend, but its timing and intensity are still confused in weather models.