TD thirteen models; Forecast to be a hurricane to me
- Tropical Depression XIII forms in the Atlantic Ocean
- It will pass near or north of the Leeward Islands this weekend as a powerful hurricane.
- It’s too early to tell if this future tornado will threaten any other wilderness areas next week.
- Interests in Bermuda, the US East Coast and Atlantic Canada should monitor the outlook for the week ahead.
Tropical Depression 13 formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and is expected to develop into a severe cyclone by the end of this week.
Here’s where the system is now and its prediction trajectory: Tropical Depression XIII is centered more than 1,400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
What will become Lee will turn west-northwest over the next few days. This will carry it over increasingly warm ocean waters, in an area of low wind shear, although it may have to contend with some dry air in the main development area in the Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles.
With the environment mostly conducive to strengthening, the National Hurricane Center expects this system to become a hurricane by Thursday and a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by the end of this week.
(more: 12 facts you may not know about hurricane forecasts)
The current situation and course of prospects
(The red shaded area indicates the likely path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It is important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high waves, coastal flooding, and winds) with a tropical cyclone usually spread outside the projected path.)
Is it a threat to the Caribbean? Lee is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles longitude by the end of this week as a severe hurricane.
The most likely scenario is for Lee to track far enough north to bring only a combination of gusty winds and rain to the northern Leeward Islands. But, we cannot completely rule out the southern course bringing Lee nearer or directly through the islands with more serious effects.
Interests in the northern Leewards, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, should monitor the progress of these forecasts closely and have their hurricane plans ready, should they take a more southerly track.
Computer prediction model trajectories, ocean heat content
(The lines in this graph represent many path predictions from different computer models. This is not an official forecast, but is used as a guideline when creating a forecast path for an active depression, storm, or hurricane. Also on this map are areas without water Not only warm, but also warm, deep waters that are a component of feeding developing and active tropical cyclones.)
What could happen next? A combination of factors will determine where Hurricane Lee will eventually head next week.
This includes how strong and wide the Bermuda-Azores elevation was at that time. This acts as a steering wheel for hurricanes in the tropics.
If this Bermuda-Azores rise is weaker and less expansive, it means the hurricane could bounce back into the mid-Atlantic without threatening the mainland United States.
If the rally is stronger and broader and builds up to the west, that could lead this system to the west and possibly pose a threat to at least parts of the east coast of the United States later next week.
At the moment, the majority of the group’s computer model guidance over the past few days indicates that a “recursive” scenario is the most likely next week.
Even if this repeat scenario continues, it could become a threat to Bermuda and parts of Atlantic Canada later next week. Lee is also likely to generate dangerous high waves, rip currents, and even potential beach erosion along much of the East Coast next week, not to mention the Bahamas and the north facing coasts of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands.
As with most hurricanes, These expectations are subject to change. Check back with us at Weather.com for the latest information on this and the 2023 hurricane season.
Jonathan Erdmann is a senior meteorologist for Weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a kid in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed a master’s degree working with bipolarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Severe and strange weather are his favorite subjects. Connect with him on X (formerly Twitter), threads And Facebook.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
