Texas storm chances continue into tomorrow

It was a wild night across West Texas. Lubbock drew the short straw regarding severe weather and ended up with two rounds of damaging winds. We isolated severe weather across the Hill Country, Central Texas and the Brazos Valley yesterday as well.

Today, isolated severe storms are possible again from the Texas Panhandle southeast into the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, central Texas, the Edwards Plateau down to the Victoria Fork, and southeast Texas. Hail of variable size and localized damaging winds will be the main concern.

Across West Texas, the Permian Basin, and the Concho Valley, we have a slightly higher chance of scattered severe storms this afternoon and into the evening. Moving toward the southeast, the strongest storms could produce golf-ball-sized hail, damaging straight-line winds of more than 70 mph, and possibly a tornado.

Rain chances will continue today into Saturday morning across the western half of Texas and the southern two-thirds of Texas. Really – the “losers” in the rain chances department over the next couple of days will be far west Texas in the Borderland, along with Texoma, North Texas (from D/FW north and east), and Ark-La-Tex and east. Texas. Outside of the areas I mentioned, we could see an additional quarter to two inches of rain through Sunday morning. We need to start calming down tomorrow night and Sunday.

Active weather looks set to return starting Monday across the northern half of Texas, although precipitation chances will be determined day-to-day once we head into the weekend. Some data suggests Tuesday and Wednesday could bring stronger storms to the northern half of Texas. We have finally reached an El Nino pattern similar to the jet stream.

Wildfire risk will be moderate to locally high, especially as we begin to dry out on Sunday. Dormant grasses will still burn quickly, but with the soil soft thanks to rain, this will allow brush trucks to get stuck in the mud while the dead grass still burns quickly. Many counties have burn bans in effect, and just because a little rain falls doesn’t mean that rain will magically disappear.

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