Thanksgiving Day Travel Storm Forecast: One week later

Thanksgiving Day Travel Storm Forecast: One week later

November 15, 2023

Updated Wednesday night


I want to start this report by making it clear that these are not predictions. It is a forward-looking outlook based on long-term analysis of computer model trends. I’m posting this for two reasons. First, to show that forecasting long-term storms beyond one week is flawed. Second, start paying attention to a storm that could impact holiday travel next Tuesday or Wednesday.

It looks like the weather pattern is about to change and hopefully our drought will help.

Did you see a post just about snow next week?

It wasn’t from me and it was probably yesterday (Tuesday). But with this GFS model updated every 6 hours, check the slider to see how quickly the snow is retreating northward.

Note the forecast hours on each map….







Compare the forecast from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning and the chance of snow was very different. Anyone who jumps on the snow does so too early.

Wednesday update

A GFS pattern run this morning seems more likely to happen. Note that I expect some adjustment to the storm’s development. I will track the trend over the next few days and refer back to this report.

Any sign of winter precipitation may be brief in the mountains at first, but I see a rain event.

10am Tuesday 21 November

Low pressure in Tennessee will start this off, but will then shift the energy into a new storm near the coast.

Storm Forecast November 15 Thanksgiving Tuesday

Animation from Tuesday morning to Thursday Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving storm forecast for November 15


Thanksgiving Travel Wednesday

Morning: Moderate to heavy rain with low coastal pressure.

November 15 Thanksgiving Storm Wednesday morning


The rain will leave as far as New England. I-95 looks like a wet day!

Snow may develop in the mountains of the western Mediterranean and PA.

November 15 Thanksgiving Storm Wednesday Night

Morning thanks

The storm will be over for us, but the cold wind will blow some very cold Turkish trots. It could also be a day that stays in the 40s, even for Baltimore and the East Shore.

November 15 A storm on Thanksgiving morning

European model

This supports support for the storm. However, the event will be faster.

Tuesday morning

Rain development

November 15 Storm Thanksgiving Tuesday ECMWF

Wednesday morning

The end of the rain. If verified, this will improve travel during the day on Wednesday.

November 15 Thanksgiving Storm Wednesday ECMWF


While details of the storm remain uncertain, the probability of a storm occurring is high based on the jet stream.

Here we see a deep negative tilt trough extending to the East Coast. This supports a strong coastal storm scenario.

Wednesday morning

November 15 Jet Stream Storm Thanksgiving Wednesday

Animation from Wednesday morning to Saturday morning (Thanksgiving weekend)

As the doter pulls out, the pattern will relax. However, we will be left with a cold air mass.

November 15 Thanksgiving jet stream storm

Temperature forecast: 10 days

This model supports warming up with rain and then collapsing on the thermometer on Thanksgiving. Highs remain in the 40s through the weekend.

Thanksgiving temperature forecast


This is the likely scenario now, but it may change the timeline as the components of this storm come together. I will return to this report to discover any trends.

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Winter forecast reports:

He doesn’t even do thatno Winter updates

Computer models support the East Coast storm track

El Nino CFSv2 winter precipitation model

El Niño warning

NOAA’s latest report is confident that a very strong event will occur. Maybe historical! This refers to temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with an impact on the track of the winter storm in the United States.

El Niño November 2023

Winter Weather Folklore: The 20 Best and More Nature’s References to Snow.

NOAA Winter 2024 Forecast

The 2024 winter forecast from farmers’ calendars returns cold and snow

Explore more

History of Maryland’s snow climate and other winter pages

School STEM Assemblies/Field Trips are back

Click to see more and ‘book’ a visit to your school

Please share your thoughts and best weather photos/videos, or just stay in touch via social media

Paraphrasing my post about dyslexia

I know there are some spelling, grammar mistakes, and other glitches sometimes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer errors that I may have overlooked. I’ve made some general statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you may have missed these: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my second year at Cornell. This did not stop me from obtaining my degree in meteorology and being the first to obtain an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to move forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does it unfairly which makes matters worse. I can also make forecasting errors. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Verbal” things can get sticky. There was no editor who could check my work When I need it And have it ready to send on a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when available. It could be after reading this. I accept this and perhaps it will prove that what you read is in fact from me… It’s part of my magic.


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