The Bank of England officially announces the El Niño phenomenon
This announcement came for the first time in about eight years, two months after the United Nations World Meteorological Organization had previously announced the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon, predicting hot weather and a record drop in temperatures.
BoM’s Dr. Carl Braganza declared the event “here” after it concluded for the first time last week.
Meteorologists were waiting another week for the pattern to stabilize and confirmed that this was the case this week.
“This summer will be hotter than average, certainly hotter than the last three years,” Braganza said.
The US Climate Prediction Center and the Japan Meteorological Agency have also issued an El Niño declaration.
It comes as parts of eastern Australia record their hottest September temperatures on record.
The last El Niño event in Australia occurred during the summer of 2015-2016.
Climate model projections indicate that the El Niño period is likely to last until at least the end of the Southern Hemisphere summer at the end of February.
Official forecasts will remain at the El Niño level until the event subsides or signs of a possible La Niña phenomenon appear.
The office said that the conditions for the occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon met the required three criteria out of four.
“Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific continue to exceed El Niño thresholds.
“Models suggest further warming is likely in the central and eastern Pacific.
“Overall, there is evidence that the atmosphere is responding to the sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical Pacific, and ocean-atmosphere coupling is beginning to occur.
“This conjunction is a feature of El Niño and is what strengthens and sustains the event for an extended period.”
The Bank of England’s criteria for declaring an El Niño include: the sea surface temperature being 0.8 degrees warmer than average; Trade winds that are weaker than average in the western or central tropical Pacific during any three of the past four months; The three-month average Southern Oscillation Index is -7 or less; The majority of climate models included in the study show a sustained rise in temperatures of at least 0.8 degrees above average in major Pacific regions.
What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña?
The La Niña-El Niño cycle – known as ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation – works a bit like a pendulum.
La Niña occurs when waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are cooler than average, as the ‘trade winds’ – the planet’s prevailing winds from east to west – strengthen, creating warmer than normal waters around Indonesia and the east coast of Australia. .
This leads to increased rainfall and increases the risk of heavy flooding in Australia.
However, when these conditions reverse – trade winds are weaker, waters are warmer than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific but cooler near Australia – an El Niño is declared, and our continent will experience hot, dry conditions and come under threat. From dehydration.
When the “pendulum” settles in the middle and ocean temperatures are closer to average, this is referred to as “neutral” ENSO conditions – and is likely to lead to less extreme weather conditions.
And if you’re wondering what the two terms actually mean, “La Niña” is Spanish for “girl” or “little girl,” while “El Niño” translates to “boy” or “little boy.”