The forecast map shows the state’s chances of snowfall from the winter storm next week
Sorry, New Jersey snow lovers. While forecasters are having a hard time pinpointing the specific impacts of the winter storm expected to head our way just before Valentine’s Day, many say our area likely won’t get a major snowstorm.
Instead, forecasters favor a mix of rain and snow, with very little — if any — snow accumulations across much of the Garden State. At least for now.
An early forecast map released by AccuWeather on Thursday gives a zero to 20% chance of snow accumulation across much of New Jersey due to the storm, which is expected to arrive late Monday and continue into Tuesday.
The map predicts a 20% to 40% chance of snow accumulation in the northwestern Garden State.
AccuWeather meteorologists say they will continue to monitor the storm’s development, and a wide range of scenarios remain on the table — ranging from spotty rain to a wintry mix, to minor snow accumulations or even heavy snow accumulations in some parts of the Northeast.
These and other forecasters say the outcome depends on the storm’s track, strength and timing, because those factors will determine whether enough cold air from the north drifts into our area when the storm arrives.
Both National Weather Service forecast offices covering New Jersey say there is a high degree of uncertainty about the strength and timing of next week’s storm.
The weather service’s Mount Holly office says the pattern appears to favor “moderate air and rain along the Coastal Plain, and likely farther north and west.” She says a combination of computer guidance models indicate “a 20% chance of 4 inches or more of snow near Pocono Mountain, so there is some chance of low-impact winter weather at least in the high northwest parts of our region.”
Update (4 p.m. Thursday): In an updated discussion of the forecast, the weather service says at least one major computer model now indicates the possibility of burnable snow Monday night in northern New Jersey, and possibly in parts of central New Jersey. A different model suggests plowable snow in South Jersey, while other models predict “minimal snow accumulation” from this storm.
The agency’s New York office, which covers New York City and northeastern New Jersey, says a mix of rain and snow is expected, with longer periods of snowfall across the interior than near the coast. The time window of concern is Monday through Tuesday, roughly 36 hours.
“The bottom line,” the weather service notes in its latest forecast discussion, “is too early to pinpoint details, but this is something to monitor in the coming days.”
Steven DiMartinoThe best chance for snow accumulation Monday night into Tuesday will likely be in the Poconos region of northeastern Pennsylvania, along with the Catskills and parts of New York’s Hudson River Valley, says a forecaster who heads the private company NY NJ PA Weather.
For most of New Jersey, DiMartino expects periods of precipitation mixed with snow as cold air moves in.
“The I-95 corridor could see snow at the end of this, with some minor accumulations, but nothing that would impact travel,” he said in a forecast video Thursday morning.
“If the development of this storm is such that cold air can get in faster, then you have a greater potential for snow accumulation on the coastal plain” in New Jersey.
But based on current trends, he believes the storm will likely be mostly rain mixed with snow, “rather than a full snow storm for the I-95 corridor.”
Current weather radar
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Lynn Melisurgo It can be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com Or on X in @LensReality.