The Internet says winter is going to be bad. Here’s what the science says.

Don’t listen to the afflicted.

Yes, winter is coming. But in stark contrast to viral social media posts, viewed, for example, by millions on TikTok, professional weather forecasters do not expect the coming winter of 2024-34 to be particularly harsh. In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects much of the United States to be warmer than normal, with no clear signs of a colder-than-average winter elsewhere. But it will still be winter The Earth rotates on a tilted axis, which means the Northern Hemisphere receives less sunlight during the winter months.

“Overall, over the entire winter, the winter is likely to be warmer than normal,” John Gottschalk, chief of the Operational Forecasting Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told Mashable. “But it’s still going to be cold. You’re still going to have arctic outbreaks and cold snaps.”

(Even during the warmest winters, blasts of frigid air from the Arctic blow into the Lower 48 from time to time.)

Below are temperature and precipitation forecasts for winter 2023-2024 from NOAA for the United States. Crucially, forecasts are based on the probabilities of these environmental conditions occurring (the reasons for this are discussed below), rather than a particular outcome. Reddish shades show the potential for above-average temperatures, and “average” means the U.S. climate averages between 1991 and 2020. (NOAA updates these averages every decade.)

“The greatest potential for warmer-than-average conditions is in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration winter precipitation forecast for 2023-2024.
Credit: NOAA

If you come across popular videos, with millions of views and hundreds of thousands of ‘likes’, similar to the viral posts below, you can certainly believe them (or enjoy the fun of it) if you like, but they don’t match the work of professional weather forecasters, who have generally done so in years. Last Impressively accurate forecasts In a scientific field that has greatly advanced in this century.

Winter forecast 2023-24

NOAA’s seasonal forecasts do not provide daily or weekly weather forecasts (meteorologists need more recent observations of global weather for such close forecasts, and there is a limit to how far they can predict future weather), but they are especially useful for many industries that would like to do so. Best plans for possible weather conditions. For example, it’s likely to be rainy in the Southeast this winter.

“These forecasts provide important guidance about the upcoming season for many industries and sectors in our economy, from energy producers to commodity markets to agricultural interests to tourism,” Sarah Kapnick, NOAA’s chief scientist, said in a statement.

A number of factors affected the forecast for this winter. Some major influences include:

Boy: “One of the main factors is El Niño,” Gottschalk said. This is an oceanic climate pattern in which warmer temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean (which covers a large area of ​​the Earth’s surface) greatly influence the weather in the United States. During El Niño years, the northern United States and Canada are often drier and warmer than normal, and in general, more air from the Pacific Ocean, as opposed to the Arctic, moves through the United States, moderating temperatures, Gottschalk explained. El Niño conditions are also pushing storms farther south, creating wetter-than-normal conditions across southern parts of the Lower 48, which is reflected in this year’s winter outlook.

Rising temperatures and climate change: Earth’s core temperature continues to rise as gaseous carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere (carbon dioxide levels are now at their highest levels in at least 800,000 years, but more likely millions of years). As a result, recent years and decades have become increasingly warmer. “The past nine years have been the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880,” NASA said.

Accordingly, the winter season is getting warmer, which has affected these seasonal forecasts. “There are long-term trends of rising temperatures. This cannot be ignored.” Gottschalk said.

“Since 1896, average winter temperatures across the 48 contiguous states have risen by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit,” the US Environmental Protection Agency noted, citing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This NASA graph shows the dramatic rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in recent years, compared to the past 800,000 years.
Credit: NASA

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If you want a closer breakdown of the seasonal forecast where you live, you can visit NOAA’s climate forecast webpage which offers an interactive map showing temperatures and precipitation probabilities.

And if you want a more accurate forecast for closer dates during the winter months, watch NOAA’s six- to 10-day forecast: it’s a valuable asset for winter planning.

In short: Watch NOAA and National Weather Service forecasts, bring a coat, and always have a healthy distrust of “facts” on social media.