The latest severe weather forecast is Wednesday
Wednesday is Weather 1 Warning Day 9 due to the potential for strong and severe thunderstorms across the Tri-State.
A strong low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes region over the next 48 hours, putting the Tri-State in an area of severe weather. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center has placed an enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather on Wednesday for our area.
These storms will develop along and ahead of the cold front that will sweep through the Tri-State, pushing storms into our area. Let’s analyze the effects we need to look for and the timing of the threat itself.
9 WARNING 1: The entire Tri-State is at increased risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather on Wednesday. The main threat is damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, but tornadoes and hail cannot be ruled out. This looks like an afternoon event at this point #WCPO @WCPO #SenseiWX #OHwx pic.twitter.com/S3Qk7QGgw8
– Brandon Spinner WCPO (@wxSpinner89) April 4, 2023
As these storms reach the Tri-State on Wednesday, they will bring with them all the potential severe weather risks; Destructive wind gusts, tornadoes and large hail. High wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph will be the main threat for these storms as the line/wave passes through. Tornadoes will also be possible, especially low-level “rotational” tornadoes. These are likely to be an integral part of the line of thunderstorms flowing through them and will be hidden within the storms themselves. We may have a few strong single supercells ahead of the mainline, and if that is the case, our tornado threat will be slightly higher. Large hailstones 1 inch in diameter or larger are possible, but they pose the least threat to the group.
There will be a possibility of some flooding, but due to the speed of these storms we do not expect widespread flooding. Rainfall totals should remain between 0.25″ to 0.75″ for most communities, but we may see some heavier localized totals. Locally strong storms will bring a potential of up to 1 to 2 inches which could increase the potential for flooding.
Storms will likely be intermittent and frequent during the morning and midday Wednesday, but the best severe weather threat will be during the mid-to-late afternoon. Isolated storms are likely midday between 12pm and 3pm. Our severe weather window will open around 4pm and should close around 10pm as the front passes.
While supercell storms are possible early on, the storms will likely move across the Tri-State as a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) also called a “squall line.” That’s why we will have more threat of harmful winds.
Areas to look for on the radar will be “curved” sections.
What we need to watch:
When we forecast severe storms, we look for several components. Like baking a cake, you need the right ingredients for things to come together. While there are many variables that can influence or prevent storm development, there are four main factors we look for. I use the acronym SLIM which covers this sHe hears, toif, IInstability, & MHumidity. He told It is a measure of the circulation in the atmosphere, which is what storms need to transform and strengthen. Lifts It is what helps these storms develop in an upward motion to push the storms higher into the atmosphere. Instability It measures the energy in the atmosphere that fuels storms. The higher these levels, the stronger the storms become. finally, moisture. You can’t have storms without moisture, but the higher the levels, the better the threat of strong storms and tornadoes.
The shear values seem to be there, at least for areas west of the I-75 corridor, so there’s not a lot of question there. Next on the list, Lifts, it should be there with storms already developing and the cold front being a source of lift as well. From there we look at Instability.
This is the element we lacked during last Friday’s event and we will have more for this threat. Values above 1000+ are likely to increase and develop severe weather, again seeing the highest values located west of I-75. These numbers may be lower depending on the amount of rain we see during the day. If we have more rain, it will likely suppress these values, which could limit storm development.
Another question we have is whether or not we have enough moisture available for storms. Dew points of 65°F and above are usually a target for severe storm potential. Right now, the sweet spot is back west of I-75. However, we will still have enough moisture in the east for storms to be severe.
The graphic below is a product of the likely path of where the strongest cycles will move. Again, this is just a forecast, but it still shows that the storms will be strong/severe as they move.
As always, be sure to stay weather alert on Wednesday. We’ll bring you on-air coverage when you need it, but you can also stream coverage on your WCPO mobile app as well as on our streaming app on Roku, Amazon Fire and Apple TV devices. Keep checking back for the latest updates as we get closer and closer.
(tags for translation) 9 On Your Side