The path may affect Florida, Boston and the Northeast

Mid-September is a time of meteorological cognitive dissonance in the Southeast, where fall rituals are performed while high temperatures remain 93 degrees.

Maybe, this thinking goes, if we wear unnecessary scarves, nurture the Halloween spirit, and consume seasonal pumpkin coffee, autumn might bring the cult merchandise into being. Guys, don’t fool yourselves

This is Florida. Your mission is to hit the beach well into November. To be fair, high temperatures may dip into the upper 80s this weekend, slightly reducing the chances that wearing a scarf will cause heatstroke. However, our true season in September is not and never will be fall.

The season is hurricane.

The peak of hurricane season arrives as Lee threatens the US National Football League

In fact, the second week of September is the peak of hurricane season.

Half of the historic Atlantic and Florida hurricane activity occurred before September 12, and the other half is still ahead. This week alone accounts for about one-eighth of the total tornado activity that has made landfall in the United States since 1900, so getting through it without sustaining even minor damage is a big deal in itself.

As befits the peak, the Atlantic is busy today, with two hurricanes brewing and another storm likely to develop this week. However, the halftime report is optimistic, as the Gulf Coast and Southeast are not in danger of subsidence over the next 10 days.

Instead, it’s Florida’s cherished football teams that are bringing with them a blast of the tropics as they venture into the emerging foliage of New England this weekend.

Hurricane Lee will pass Florida offshore, but erosion is expected

Hurricane Lee’s forecast winds and rain are focused on the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada, although Lee will also produce widespread heavy surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. East Coast this week. As of the National Hurricane Center’s warning at 11 a.m. Tuesday, Lee is creeping west-northwest at 6 mph, and remains a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

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Where exactly is Hurricane Lee headed?

You’ve probably heard about Hurricane Lee for several days, and if you’re in the northeastern United States, you can expect to continue hearing about it.

AccuWeather

While high winds have declined from Lee’s Category 5 peak on Friday, successive eyewall replacement cycles and bouts of wind shear have resulted in a hurricane much larger than it was five days ago.

Aircraft reconnaissance indicates hurricane force and tropical storm force winds of more than 150 miles and 375 miles in diameter, respectively. With the storms already covering an area of ‚Äč‚Äčopen ocean larger than the distance between Jacksonville and Miami, be thankful that Lee will pass more than 700 miles east of Florida.

However, this massive wind field will expand even further as maximum winds decrease, bringing heavy surf, rip currents and beach erosion effects along the east coast of Florida north of Palm Beach between today and Sunday.

Five days of nearshore seas of 5 to 10 feet could cause problems, especially in parts of east-central and northeastern Florida’s beaches that Ian and Nicole are severely drained. Unfortunately, strong waves and even distant hurricanes can be deadly: 2019’s Hurricane Lorenzo killed 8 people in the United States, despite remaining more than 2,000 miles away from the East Coast.

Will the Seminoles vs. Boston College face heavy rain and wind? It’s possible

As expected, Lee slows down today and flashes as it prepares to turn right (just another reason it’s not a good fit for Florida), and by Friday morning, all models agree that the hurricane will accelerate northward as it passes west of Bermuda.

Lee will cross the cold waters generated by Franklin and Idalia as it does, which should begin the gradual process of becoming a larger non-tropical cyclone as it approaches eastern New England or Atlantic Canada over the weekend.

As Lee interacts with a front on Saturday, it will lose its inner core of hurricane-force winds, but tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain will likely extend across a 600-mile-long Nor’easter-like area.

Therefore, although the center is likely to track into Les Mines or Nova Scotia on Sunday (perhaps after losing remaining tropical features), hazardous wind, rain and storm surge impacts are expected over a wide area including most of Atlantic Canada and eastern New England. . Coastal storms are possible in eastern Maine and possible in coastal Massachusetts on Saturday and Sunday.

How far Lee’s heavy rainfall reaches western New England has yet to be determined.

In Boston, the Knowles area could face heavy rain and low-strength tropical storms in Boston on Saturday if Lee tracks further toward Maine, or intermittent rain and gusty winds with a track toward Nova Scotia.

Both scenarios are possible, and storm preparations should be underway in coastal New England. Flooding is also a concern, as 2 to 4 inches or more of rain will fall on saturated soils in the Northeast.

Category 1 Margot meanders as Florida catches a needed break

Elsewhere in the tropics, Category 1 Hurricane Margot is roaming the open waters of the eastern subtropical Atlantic, and will continue to do so without bothering anyone for another five days before March departs.

Conditions also look good for another tropical storm to develop between West Africa and the Lesser Antilles by Saturday, but a dip over the western Atlantic should keep anything developing east of the continental United States as well.

There are no other tropical threats on the horizon.

In conclusion, instead of trying to show the fall the secretOn a magical thinking level, I recommend that Floridians focus their psychic energies on keeping this protective basin in place, which is a practical and achievable goal.

If we can go another two weeks without incident, the historical rate of hurricanes approaching Florida from the east will decrease significantly in late September. This will leave October to negotiate.

I’ll be back next week with a look at what we can expect from the final third of hurricane season.

Until then, don’t forget to ice your pumpkin spice treats, and keep watching the sky.

Dr. Ryan Truchalot is the chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee startup that offers forensic meteorology, expert witness consulting services, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Contact us at ryan@weathertiger.com, and visit weathertiger.com for an enhanced, real-time version of our seasonal forecast.

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