The southeastern coastal depression may become “subtropical”
- Low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of the southeastern United States late this week.
- It could become a subtropical depression or storm by the end of this week.
- Rain and wind will spread to the East Coast this weekend, regardless of developments.
- Another system is likely to develop in the eastern Atlantic later this week.
The Atlantic’s busy hurricane season will remain so this week, with one area near the southeastern U.S. coast likely to become a depression or subtropical storm, Hurricane Nigel in the mid-Atlantic, and a new tropical wave emerging from Africa.
A low will form off the southeast coast late this week. Computer models predict a vortex of low pressure will form along the old front somewhere off the coast of eastern Florida, Georgia or North Carolina late this week, generally within the area circled on the map below.
If this depression can stay above the warm Gulf Stream long enough, it could generate enough thunderstorms to warm it enough to be considered a depression or a subtropical storm. These are a combination of depressions associated with fronts, but also have some characteristics of tropical storms. The National Hurricane Center issues warnings for these subtropical systems as it does for depressions and tropical storms.
(More: Explanation of depressions and subtropical storms)
The next storms in the Atlantic hurricane season will be named “Ophelia,” then “Philip.”
There are likely to be effects, regardless of what they are called. We expect this low to generally move north this weekend toward the Carolinas.
The difference between low and high pressure near New England will bring gusty winds, especially on beaches, from northeast Florida to the mid-Atlantic states at least Friday through the weekend. These winds can also stir up some high waves and rip currents. Keep this in mind if you have plans for the beach.
Deep tropical moisture will also be pulled north toward the East Coast late this week. This will bring locally heavy rain up and down the East Coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic states later Thursday and into the weekend. Localized flash flooding is possible when these bands of falling rain stop for a few hours.
Rainfall forecast
(This should be interpreted as a general overview of where heavy rain may fall. Larger amounts may occur when bands of rain stop over a few hours.)
For now, we expect this to be primarily a nuisance this weekend. Check back with us at Weather.com for the latest updates to this forecast.
Nigel and a new tropical wave zone are also present. Hurricane Nigel, the sixth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, continues to swirl in the central Atlantic, but will turn northeastward, away from any land areas.
Another tropical wave will move off West Africa and will likely become a tropical depression by the end of this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Assuming it holds together, it will remain far from Earth during the first half of next week. It remains to be seen whether it will threaten land or curl up over the open Atlantic as Nigel will.
Tropical forecast for the next seven days
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