CNN
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As Hurricane Lee fluctuates in intensity over the open waters of the Atlantic, its effects may soon be felt on beaches up and down the East Coast in the form of life-threatening rip currents and dangerous coastal conditions.
Lee is expected to continue to move well north of Puerto Rico, the British and US Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands, but will have an impact there and other Caribbean islands. It is still too early to determine its long-term trajectory later this week and how significant the effects will be on the Northeastern US states, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.
However, the east coast is expected to experience large waves and rough currents in an increasing fashion this week – as is the Caribbean now being affected.
“Sea waves generated by Hurricane Lee are affecting parts of the Lesser Antilles,” the National Hurricane Center warned Friday night. The British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and Bermuda are also facing swells this weekend that could lead to life-threatening conditions and break waves.
Surf heights of 6 to 10 feet are expected Sunday, according to the National Weather Service office in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Larger waves are expected this week along east- and north-facing beaches.
“Beach erosion and coastal flooding are possible.” Post office On social media.
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Lee, which was a Category 1 storm on Thursday, strengthened exceptionally quickly to Category 5 as it moved west across the Atlantic Ocean, doubling its wind speeds to 165 mph in just one day.
The hurricane center said vertical wind shear and an eyewall replacement cycle — a process that occurs with the majority of major, long-lived hurricanes — has since weakened Lee.
The hurricane center said early Sunday that the hurricane is now a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, and forecasters expect Lee to regain strength “over the next two days, followed by gradual weakening.” Lee is centered about 280 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands as of 5 a.m. ET Sunday and is moving in a west-northwest direction at 9 mph.
Lee’s computer model trends showed the hurricane taking a northward turn early this week. But exactly when that shift will happen, and how far Lee will be able to track it in the West by then, will play a big role in how close he will be to the United States.
Many orientation factors at the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere will determine how close Lee is to the East Coast.
Lee’s likely path next week will be determined by multiple weather factors including a strong high pressure area to the east (yellow circle) and a jet stream (silver arrows) to the west.
The high pressure area over the Atlantic Ocean, known as the Bermuda High, will have a major impact on how quickly Lee turns. A strong Bermuda high would keep Lee on its current west-northwest track and slow it down a bit.
As high pressure weakens this week, it will allow me to start moving north. Once this northward shift occurs, the location of the jet stream — strong upper-level winds capable of changing the direction of a hurricane’s path — will affect how closely Lee is pointed toward the United States.
Scenario: Going out to sea
Track scenario: A high-pressure area (yellow circle) to the east of Lee and a jet stream (silver arrows) to the west of Lee could force the storm to track between the two, away from the US coast.
Lee could quickly turn northward early this week if high pressure weakens significantly.
If the jet stream originates along the East Coast, it will act as a barrier preventing Lee from approaching the coast. This scenario would keep Lee away from the US coast, but could bring the storm closer to Bermuda.
Scenario: Close to the East Coast
Track scenario: A high-pressure area (yellow circle) to the east of Lee and a jet stream (silver arrows) to the west of Lee could force the storm to track between the two, near the US coast.
Lee could make a slower turn to the north because high pressure remains strong, and the jet stream moves inland over the eastern United States. This scenario would leave parts of the East Coast, especially North Carolina, vulnerable to a much closer attack than Lee.
