Unusually mild weather until Thursday
November 13-17 is Winter Hazards Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Every year, the National Weather Service, Minnesota Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and Wisconsin Emergency Management work to promote safety and winter preparedness for all citizens wherever they are: in their homes, on the road, at work and at play. Unfortunately, many people suffer needlessly every year because they are unaware of the potential dangers of the winter season. Winter safety information will be provided each day during the week of November 13. Winter safety information will be divided into 5 topics this week:
Monday, November 13: Winter storms
Tuesday, November 14: Outdoor Winter Safety
Wednesday, November 15: Winter fire safety
Thursday, November 16: Indoor air quality in winter
Friday, November 17: Winter driving
See more from the Twin Cities NWS here:
The weather over the next week looks mostly warm and dry. A fast-moving storm is set to sweep through the area later this week with gusty winds, but very little rain is expected. There will be a bit of a slowdown as we head into the weekend.
The rain forecast extending into early next week shows very little rain across the state. There could be a few tenths of an inch across the southwestern part of the state, but most locations will remain mainly dry.
Although temperatures were cooler than average earlier this month, temperatures have been slightly warmer than average recently. However, the average temperature in the Twin Cities is approximately +2.5 Fahrenheit above average with precipitation more than -0.60 inches below average. There was no snowfall recorded at the airport, which is approximately -2.0 inches below average.
The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 indicates that we typically see about 5.5 inches of snow during November. The snowiest month tends to be December with more than a foot falling. The second snowiest month tends to be January with approximately 11″ falls in the metros.
Recent heavy rains since late September have helped the drought somewhat across the state. However, nearly 18% of the state remains in severe drought, which is improved from 34% nearly 3 months ago.
The weather forecast for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, November 14 will be about +20 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year. Winds will be very active southwesterly with gusts up to 40 mph at times.
Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the mid 40s in the morning and will rise to the low/mid 60s by the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be very brisk southwesterly, reaching speeds of up to 40 mph.
The weather forecast for Tuesday will be approximately +15F to +25F above average across the state under partly cloudy skies. Monday will be more like early October than mid-November.
The 5-day temperature forecast for Minneapolis shows mild temperatures continuing through next week with readings in the 50s and 60s, which would be roughly +10F to +20F above average for this time of year. We’ll cool off into the 40s as we head into the weekend, which will still be a little above average for this time of year.
The extended temperature forecast for Minneapolis shows very warm October-like readings over the next week. It will also be a mostly dry week with cool and breezy weather returning next weekend.
According to NOAA’s National Model Combination, temperatures will be warmer than average as we continue through the middle part of the month. Readings could rise into the mid/upper 50s and low to 60s, which would be well above average for that time of year. Overnight lows could be in the 30s and 40s, which is above average for this time of year. As we head into the second half of the week, readings drop into the 30s with overnight lows in the 20s.
The hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean extends from June 1 to November 30. November is usually a very quiet month, but storms can still occur. In fact, last year, Hurricane Nicole made landfall along the east coast of Florida.
According to NOAA’s NHC, there is a high chance of tropical formation in the Caribbean over the next seven days. Regardless of whether this storm develops, very heavy rains may be possible in parts of the northern Caribbean over the next week.
Weather conditions across the central United States will be fairly calm over the next few days with the weather remaining mostly dry through most of next week. As we move past the upcoming weekend, it looks like weather conditions may become more active across the central United States. Stay tuned!
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, temperature forecasts show 8 to 14 days of warmer than average temperatures across the eastern United States. Meanwhile, cooler than average temperatures will return to the western two-thirds of the country.
The 8-14 day rainfall forecast shows more active weather across much of the country as we head into the middle part of the month and beyond.
Storms, when they choose, prefer to fall on major holidays. When the weather is too nice(?) for too long, the pangs of paranoia rise to the surface. The weather balloon often pops around Thanksgiving, give or take a few days.
AAA estimates that a record 55 million Americans will travel for Thanksgiving this year, most of them driving. What could go wrong?
The chance of snow has diminished early next week, but there’s no doubt that an inevitable cold front of Canadian origin will sail into town within a week. 30s on Thanksgiving? Count on that.
The ECMWF long-term ensemble models (a large ensemble of models with slightly different initialization parameters) indicate snow accumulation for the post-Thanksgiving weekend, but the confidence level is low. Stay tuned.
Focus on the here and now: beautiful, postcard-worthy sunshine all week long with a shot in the 60s today and Thursday before waves of cool air blow south. Will this fall be the last fun? It sure looks like it. But it was nice while it lasted.
Tuesday: Sunny and windy. Wind: southwesterly 20 – 40. High: 62.
Tuesday Night: Gradually clear and breezy. Wind: southwesterly 15 – 30. Low: 42.
Wednesday: Blue skies, less wind. Wind: North 7-12. High 57.
Thursday: Partly sunny, winds active. Wind: SW 15 – 35. Wake: 45. Height 63.
Friday: Sunny and seasonally cool. Wind: 10 – 15 s. Waking: 32. Height 43.
Saturday: Still sunny and fun. Wind: West 5-10. Waking: 33. Rising 50.
Sunday: The sun is fading, it’s still quiet there. Wind: 10 – 15 southeast. Waking: 34. Height 48.
Monday: The storm may stay south. More clouds. Wind: NNE 7 – 12. Wake: 32. Height: 44.
2002: A 7.9 magnitude earthquake in Alaska turned some well water black in southeastern Minnesota due to magnesium particles being shaken off.
1996: A blizzard is moving through much of central and southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. Schools were closed or started late in much of southern Minnesota on the morning of the 15th due to a half-inch layer of ice that covered much of the area. Flights canceled at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport due to icing on planes and runways, although precipitation was reported mainly in the Twin Cities.
1833: A spectacular meteor shower was seen in Ft. Snoring.
Average high: 43°F (record: 71°F set in 1990)
Average low: 28 F (record: 0 F was set in 1919)
Record rainfall: 0.80 inch was recorded in 1926
Record snowfall: 2.5 inches in 1951 and 2022
Sunrise: 7:08 am
Sunset: 4:45 p.m
Daylight hours: ~9 hours and 36 minutes
No daylight since yesterday: 2 minutes and 25 seconds
Daylight loss since summer solstice (June 21): ~6 hours and 11 minutes
1.9 days since new moon
Weather forecasts across the central United States show warmer than average temperatures across much of the central and western United States. Meanwhile, cold temperatures will persist across the Northeast. Areas of heavy precipitation will persist across the southern United States, where several inches of rain cannot be ruled out.
Tuesday’s national weather forecast shows heavy rain continuing to fall in areas across the Texas coastal bend, but much of the country should be dry and calm.
The national weather forecast through Wednesday shows continued heavy rain in the Deep South. Meanwhile, most parts of the country will be calm. There will be a larger spell of rain along the West Coast with areas of heavy rain and snow at higher elevations.
The extended precipitation forecast shows areas of heavy rain across the southern United States and good rain along the West Coast. We will start to see the potential for rain across the central United States as we approach the end of the month.
According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across the high elevations of the western United States. There will also be some decent snowfall along the international border and north into Canada.
“Homes built in areas with pastures and shrubs face a greater risk of fires as development expands and the effects of climate change intensify. However, a new report published Thursday found that the number of homes within the perimeter of expanding wildfires has doubled since the 1990s. According to the researchers, from Of the 55,000 homes that burned between 2010 and 2022, two-thirds of them burned in grassland and shrubland fires, but according to Volker Radeloff, professor of forest life and environment at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and co-author of the study, while climate change and drought play a major role, the expansion of housing projects in Suburbanization increases risk: Between 1990 and 2020, nearly 44 million homes were built in these wild-urban interface areas.
See more from Grist here:
“An analysis by NASA’s Sea Level Change Science Team concludes that if a strong El Niño develops this winter, cities along the western coasts of the Americas could see an increased frequency of high-tide floods that could inundate roads and spill over into low-lying areas.” False buildings. El Niño is a periodic climate phenomenon characterized by higher than normal sea levels and warmer than average ocean temperatures along the tropical Pacific Ocean. These conditions could spread poleward along the western coasts of the Americas. “Heavy rains that are still developing this year could bring more rain than normal to the southwestern United States and drought to Western Pacific countries like Indonesia. These impacts typically occur from January to March.”
See more from Phys.org here:
“The 12 months between November 2022 and October 2023 saw average global temperatures rise 1.32°C above the pre-industrial average – 0.03°C higher than the previous record set between October 2015 and September 2016.” “In roughly 125,000 years,” says Andrew Pershing of Climate Central, a US climate science non-profit. Pershing and his colleagues based their analysis on surface temperature data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. They found that the main driver of the heat was global warming due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Attributing the exact amount of warming to different factors is difficult, but Frederick Otto of Imperial College London says about 1.28 degrees Celsius of the rise in average temperatures can be attributed to climate change.
See more from New Scientist here: