Weather system brings flood risk to South Florida, could dry out Tampa Bay

An area of ​​low pressure will likely develop off the east coast of Florida, which could bring heavy rain and possible flooding to South Florida over the next couple of days and suck moisture away from the Tampa Bay area.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of disturbed weather — one off the southeastern coast of Florida and the other in the Caribbean Sea, the agency said in an update Wednesday afternoon. Neither currently poses a threat to the Tampa Bay area.

Off the southeast coast of Florida, forecasters are predicting a low pressure system To develop by Thursday. The hurricane center said the area was unlikely to become tropical. The hurricane center said the system will move northeast near the Bahamas and off the East Coast of the United States over the weekend.

The low pressure area could generate gusty winds and heavy rain across parts of South Florida, the Keys and the Bahamas over the next few days, forecasters said.

the The National Weather Service warned of a moderate possibility of heavy rain in areas such as Fort Lauderdale and Miami on Wednesday. – When urban areas experience up to 3 inches of rain in one hour and flash flooding. More than 10 inches of rain is possible through Thursday morning in the area, the weather service said.

Although heavy rain is possible in South Florida, the Tampa Bay area is not expected to see much impact from the system.

“The only real impact this is going to have on our weather is that as the low develops, it’s going to pull in drier air, so it’s going to reduce the chances of rain here,” Spectrum Bay News 9 meteorologist Josh Linker said.

The system complicates rainfall forecasts for Tampa Bay, Lenker said. A separate low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, which is not currently monitored by the Hurricane Center, It drives moisture into the area. It brought a low pressure area First rain in Tampa Bay in nearly a month Tuesday.

Depending on how quickly low pressure develops in Southeast Florida, this system could pull moisture away from Tampa Bay and reduce rain chances in the region, Lenker said.

“There is no scenario that gives us the possibility of heavy rain, such as widespread heavy rain,” Lenker said. “Somehow, if this low develops off South Florida too early, and cuts off the moisture feed from the first low (Gulf system), we will get less of the rain we desperately need.”

Lineker said there was still a good shot of Tampa Bay getting widespread rain on Wednesday night. However, precipitation off Florida’s west coast didn’t make much progress Wednesday morning, Lineker said.

“I’m not overly optimistic that we’ll get good rain,” Lineker said.

The National Weather Service expects Wednesday night to be breezy, with a 70% chance of rain across Tampa Bay. Wind speeds could reach 25 mph, according to Tampa’s forecast. By Thursday, there is up to a 50% chance of rain across the region.

The South Florida system is also likely to produce wind shear that will prevent another area of ​​disturbed weather from developing in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Lenker said. Early this week, this Caribbean system showed signs that it could develop further, but its chances of development continued to decline.

Hurricane Center forecasters said the system being monitored in the Caribbean could develop into a tropical depression this weekend, and that Caribbean islands should watch for the disturbance.

The Hurricane Center is monitoring these two systems just a few weeks before the official end of the hurricane season on November 30. However, Lineker said hurricane season in Tampa Bay is essentially over.

“We’re done with hurricane and tropical weather season here in Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area,” Lineker said. “That’s simply because we finished a month early when the first good cold front passed through us.”

That early October cold front cooled Gulf temperatures and dried out the atmosphere, making it nearly impossible for tropical air to resurface late in the season, Linker said.

By Friday, rain chances in the Tampa Bay area drop to about 20%. This weekend, drier and cooler air will settle into the region, with highs reaching the upper 70s and lows reaching the 50s in some areas.

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