Weather update: Sunday – May 12, 2024

Weather update: Sunday – May 12, 2024

mother's Day: Mostly sunny. A little warmer. Highs: Low 80s. Wind: light and variable.

Overnight: Mostly cloudy. amazing. Low: High 50s. Wind: calm.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. light. Highs: lower 70s. Wind: South 5-15 mph, gusts 20 mph.

Overnight: Mostly cloudy. Possibility of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. light. Lows: Below 60. Wind: Southeast 10-15 mph, gusts 20 mph.

Tuesday: cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. light. Highs: Low to mid 70s. Wind: South 10-15 mph, gusts 20 mph.

Overnight: cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms are likely during the evening, then rain will become scattered after midnight. light. Lows: Below 60. Winds: West 10-15 mph, gusting 20 mph.

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This week will be another active week in terms of rain spells, with about two full 24-hour periods with little to no rain. The first dry day will be today, as we celebrate Mother's Day. It will be a beautiful day complementing the high pressure area and dry northerly flow. Mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s after a cool start to the day, with lows in the lower and middle 50s.

The action begins Monday, as the slow-moving upper level trough consolidates, while moving eastward from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley through Tuesday evening. Scattered rain will spread north and east from the lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday night, into the mid-South during the day Monday. At this time, it appears that rain may reach the News12 viewing area during the morning and then make slow progress across the area by late afternoon. There may be a break in precipitation Monday night, before the main area of ​​deep moisture and high air builds up in the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachia on Tuesday, in combination with the storm system's surface low pressure center and cold front. A few thunderstorms are possible as the cold front moves east through the area Tuesday into Tuesday evening. However, several computer model projections indicate that the most widespread convection zone will be farther south, closer to the Gulf Coast. While this period of the forecast is still about 48 to 60 hours away, it appears that this southern area may be where stronger and potentially severe thunderstorms develop, rather than farther north around Chattanooga. We will be able to better focus on this part of the forecast by Monday.

The upper-level low pressure system that will drive the weather Monday and Tuesday will move so slowly that even after the lower-level portion of the storm system (the surface low pressure center) moves east of the Appalachians, there will still be a chance some rain will continue during the daytime hours Wednesday. Finally, by Thursday, we should be able to enjoy a return to drier air and mostly sunny skies behind a departing system at the start of the week. The period of dry weather does not last long as models forecast the arrival of another slow-moving storm system. As with the system at the beginning of the week, this system also appears to be moving through the WDEF viewing area in two parts, with a main surface frontal system followed by the original upper level low pressure. In this scenario, showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Friday followed by an excess area of ​​rain on Saturday. If all goes well, we could have a dry Sunday, but the medium term models are not all in agreement in this extended period of the outlook.

The wet pattern will keep our low temperatures a few degrees above normal, in the lower and middle 60s through most of the week. High temperatures will be mainly limited to the 70s in a mostly cloudy and rainy weather pattern. Although it looks like we'll be able to enjoy highs in the 80s on Thursday with the help of strong mid-May sunshine!

The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day forecast for Sunday, May 19 through Saturday, May 25 features near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, which is good news because it may help stave off the possibility of severe drought conditions; Just like we saw in 2023 during the late summer and fall.

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National Drought Summary for May 2, 2024

summary

Moderate to heavy amounts of rain fell across parts of the Southeast and Northeast this week, bringing local improvements to persistent drought and abnormal dryness in the Southeast, and conditions were mostly unchanged in the Northeast, except for western New York, which missed out on heavy rain. Rainfall witnessed a slight deterioration.

The middle third of the contiguous United States saw a mix of improvements and deterioration, depending on where there was more or less rain and where dry and windy conditions persisted. Parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan's Lower Peninsula, southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas saw improved conditions after heavy rains there. Meanwhile, moderate drought expanded into northwest Missouri, parts of west-central Wisconsin, Minnesota, northwestern Iowa, the southernmost Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and extreme northeastern Wisconsin. Much of Texas remains unchanged, with some declines in the southeast corner and several declines in central and south Texas where long-term drought conditions continue to cause impacts. Recent drought and warm, windy weather in northwest Oklahoma, Texas and Oklahoma have created abnormal drought there.

Short-term drought and high evapotranspiration demand resulted in large areas of deteriorating conditions in northeastern Wyoming, while west-central Wyoming, north-central Colorado, northeastern Utah, western Montana, and the northern Idaho Panhandle saw areas of improvement due to reduced evapotranspiration. Demand and improved snow recently. In Hawaii, an active trade wind pattern persisted, resulting in some improvement on the leeward (northeast) slopes of the Big Island and Kauai, while a small area of ​​moderate drying developed on the leeward (southwest) portion of Kauai. In Puerto Rico, some improvements have been made as recent rainfall has improved streamflows and crop stress, reduced rainfall deficits and raised reservoir levels.

No changes were made to the drought monitor this week in Alaska.

– NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu


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Every time a rain, hail, or snowstorm crosses your area, volunteers take precipitation measurements from as many locations as possible (see Equipment). These rainfall reports are then recorded on our website www.cocorahs.org. The data is then displayed and organized for our many end users to analyze and apply to everyday situations ranging from water resource analysis and severe storm warnings to neighbors comparing how much rain has fallen in their backyards.

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