What to expect from the weather
When traveling by car or plane, it is always wise to prepare for the possibility of inclement weather. While we won’t know what will happen until today, knowing historical weather averages for the area can help decide when to travel and how long you need to prepare.
Compared to previous years, daily temperatures for this time of year have been warmer in Michigan. This is due to the El Nino phenomenon.
The weather is unpredictable and the weather can bring a surprise come Christmas Day.
“Exact Christmas weather could be much different than the generally expected pattern,” a media representative for the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids said.
Average Thanksgiving Day
The average temperature in the region ranges from 27 degrees to a low of 39 degrees. The highest temperature was recorded in 2012 when the highest daily temperature was 65 degrees. The coldest Thanksgiving was in 1950. That year the temperature dropped to 7 degrees.
It is not unusual for the area to see a green Thanksgiving.
According to an NWS representative, “For Muskegon, (you see) 1 out of 5 Thanksgivings with snow on the ground.”
The average snowfall on Thanksgiving Day in the Traverse City area is less than half an inch with an average of an inch (if any) on the ground. The most extreme Thanksgiving in a hundred and twenty years was seen in 1903 when 19 inches of snow was measured on the ground. Since that year, the heaviest snowfall was observed on Thanksgiving Day in 1952 when just under 5 inches fell.
Christmas day forecast
Looking at weather patterns in the area can give a general idea of what is to come.
Traverse City has seen a range of extreme weather events on Christmas Day over the course of 126 years, from 1896 to 2022. The warmest Christmas Day on record was in 1982, with a high of 58 degrees. Meanwhile, the coldest temperature was recorded in 2004, falling to -6 degrees.
In 1995, Traverse City saw its highest snowfall on Christmas Day, accumulating 7.4 inches, and the greatest snow depth was recorded in 1989 at 23 inches.
In contrast to these extreme events, the long-term averages for Christmas Day are a more typical representation of the city’s winter climate. The average maximum temperature was 30 degrees, and the minimum was 19 degrees. Additionally, the average snowfall on Christmas Day is 0.8 inches, accompanied by an average of 5 inches of snow on the ground.
White Christmas?
Even with the current El Nino phenomenon, winter will come.
“We will still experience blizzards and cold snaps,” the NWS representative said.
A “white Christmas” is defined as having an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. The chance of seeing a white Christmas is still high in this part of the country.
According to the actor, “Once you get to Christmas, it doesn’t snow on the ground once every 5 years.”
Looking at data collected since 1896 in Traverse City by the NWS, the area has observed a snow-covered Christmas on 99 occasions. This gives a chance of a white Christmas of about 79%.
What the weather will show in a month is yet to be seen. For now, we can look at the collected data and plan ahead for either travel or a warm stay at home.
Monitor snow levels across the state with our snow tracker.
