What you need to know about the severe weather threat Sunday

CINCINNATI – Sunday is the 1st Weather Warning Day as we track the potential for strong and severe thunderstorms.

A powerful low pressure system, already responsible for tornadoes in the Plains states this weekend, will move east over the Great Lakes and put the Tri-State in a position for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Before that, the Storm Prediction Center placed much of the Tri-State at enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather on Sunday.

There will be two sections of rain on Sunday; Rain showers and mild storms in the early morning. Afternoon storms will likely be strong and have a good chance of becoming severe. Let’s take a look at what the biggest impacts will be and take a closer look at the timeline.

Storm effects
Sunday’s storms will bring the potential for all manner of severe weather hazards. This includes damaging winds, large hail and some tornadoes. Strong straight-line winds of 60 to 70 mph with hail up to 2 inches in diameter are likely. Those are the main threats for Sunday. Tornadoes will also be possible, but this threat is not as high as the previous two. The status of the storm will determine how strong our tornado risk is. We may have a few strong single supercells before the squall line appears. If so, our tornado threat would be slightly higher within those supercells.

Within these storms we will also have some heavy rain. It is this localized heavy rain threat that could create some flooding issues. The better threat will be where storms train in the same areas. Most areas should see 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain, but in some heavier and stronger storms there could be 2 to 3 inches. This would certainly bring the possibility of some flash flooding.

timetable
As mentioned above, the start of the day will start with some rain and storms, but that won’t be a big problem. It is the afternoon that we should pay close attention to. Models were trending later for our severe weather threat to develop, but the schedule could open as early as 3-4 p.m. It will likely be closer to 6pm where we will see storms flaring to our northwest and moving toward the northwest. The tripartite state. Given the direction in which these storms will move, our threat will depend largely on where the storms move first. Anything that develops near or north of Indianapolis has a much better chance of reaching us than anything that burns to the south. These storms should move from northwest to southeast. Either way, our main window for strong and severe storms will be between 6pm and 11pm. The threat should end by midnight as the cold front moves in.

WCPO – Brandon Spinner

WCPO – Brandon Spinner

While supercell storms are possible early on, the storms will likely move across the Tri-State as a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) also called a “squall line.” That’s why we will have more threat of harmful winds.

WCPO – Brandon Spinner

The areas inside the squall line you should look for are spots that show “bend” segments. This is an indication of strong winds within the storm.

What we need to watch:
When we forecast severe storms, we look for several components. Like baking a cake, you need the right ingredients for things to come together. While there are many variables that can influence or prevent storm development, there are four main factors we look for. I use the acronym SLIM which covers this sHe hears, toif, IInstability, & MHumidity. He told It is a measure of the circulation in the atmosphere, which is what storms need to transform and strengthen. Lifts It is what helps these storms develop in an upward motion to push the storms higher into the atmosphere. Instability It measures the energy in the atmosphere that fuels storms. The higher these levels, the stronger the storms become. finally, moisture. You can’t have storms without moisture, but the higher the levels, the better the threat of strong storms and tornadoes.

WCPO – Brandon Spinner

He told The values ​​seem strong. Indices from 3.0 to 5.0 tell us that if storms occur, there will be a high probability of circulation. These numbers also suggest that we may have a better chance of hurricanes. Here we look at Instability.

WCPO – Brandon Spinner

Values ​​above 1000+ are likely to increase and severe weather develops, and again you see the highest values ​​are west of I-75, but all of our numbers are really adequate. These numbers may be lower depending on the amount of rain we see during the morning hours, but there should be a sufficient window for these numbers to be possible.

WCPO – Brandon Spinner

Next: moisture. Dew points of 65°F and above are typically a target for the potential for severe storms and we will have plenty of moisture available for storms. Values ​​will likely be closer to 70 degrees Fahrenheit, which is very high. The only question is when and if we will get it Lifts an item. Boundaries from the first day’s rain can act like this, or storms that have already developed can help as well. We won’t know if that develops until the afternoon itself, which is why the afternoon storm is threatening or not.

As always, be sure to stay weather alert wherever you are on Sunday. We’ll bring you on-air coverage when you need it, but you can also stream coverage on your WCPO mobile app as well as on our streaming app on Roku, Amazon Fire and Apple TV devices. Keep checking for the latest updates as the day goes on.