When will it rain or get colder this week?
I’m off today but wanted to get an update there because I’ll be tied up tomorrow morning so won’t be able to write anything for you.
that it Beautiful and refreshing morning There as the march toward fall continues. Arrives this Saturday.
Temperatures this morning in KCI dropped to at least 49 degrees…the coldest since May 20th.
There were some impressive quick storms Saturday afternoon with lots of small hail falling in some areas. Many have missed out, especially on the north side of the metro.
On the southern side, the total amount of rain reached about 1″ or so. Which was very welcome. It came quickly as we expected. Now more areas need heavy rain, and that will be a tough proposition this week.
There will be some heavy rain locally but I’m not convinced the majority of metros will participate in that.
There are other opportunities emerging this week, and perhaps the best chances are to wait for the first day of fall on a larger scale.
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One sentence predictions: Sunnier and warmer skies with some smoke again today. Highs in the mid-80s.
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Climate prediction
today: warmer with The smoke is decreasing Later today. Lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 80s
Tonight: Fair but not great with lows in the 50s
tomorrow: Partly cloudy with the possibility of some scattered storms later in the day or tomorrow evening. Highs are back in the mid to upper 80s. Winds also with gusts up to 30 mph
Wednesday: Storm risks may be a little more difficult and more concentrated south of the metro. It will likely be a cooler day with clouds and some rain/drizzle from Kansas City south. Highs in the 70s. Breezy as well
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discussion
I received a note from the Spickard area in northern MO this morning of a low near 42 degrees. Yes, fall is coming one way or another.
However, there will be a summery tinge in the air over the next couple of days. There is still a fair amount of smoke, yesterday it was noticeable again with visibility being affected again as well.
Not as bad as it was about 10 days ago but still noticeable, some have smelled it as well The fires in Canada continue to burn and send smoke into the plains behind these cold fronts, which move in frequently as the seasons gradually change.
To be honest, I don’t remember a time here where we had this many days of noticeable smoke/haze due to fires.
We’ve been seeing more and more of these days over the past ten years or so but this year because of what’s happening in Canada. Smoke seems to have a larger role in our skies, sometimes faint, sometimes more toward the surface.
The western US fires aren’t that bad at all because of the moisture that’s been around since the winter…so that’s good.
Seasons change early Saturday morning. As fall begins and the nights become longer and longer in northern latitudes, temperatures become cooler there.
As this happens, temperatures in southern latitudes drop, but warm ocean waters prevent temperatures from falling quickly. These changes allow the jet stream to strengthen in the atmosphere, allowing stronger storms to form and move across the mid-latitudes.
These stronger storms generate stronger cold fronts and this means more active weather.
This week there will be a series of strong low pressure areas in central and northern Canada.
In the United States, we’re not there yet, but we’re getting there. Over the weekend, a strong low pressure area will impact the plains, and this could be the best chance for good rain in the region as an upper level storm develops and meanders across the region.
Before that, there will be opportunities tomorrow. Tonight, a low-level jet stream will develop over the Plains. This could create enough lift to generate some scattered storms early tomorrow morning, but as the atmosphere warms, it should become less stable.
One issue that can prevent a lot of storm development is the extremes that may hinder development. There is a good looking disturbance coming from the Plains area, but the main focus of that may be more towards southern Kansas and southern Missouri.
So that kind of leaves us in no man’s land. That doesn’t mean it won’t rain in some areas… but the chances of something widespread happening don’t look good.
This disturbance reaching lows across southern Missouri on Wednesday could create a cold weather problem Wednesday with rain/drizzle possible for part of the day.
This combination will create a range of cold temperatures, and some areas may have trouble reaching temperatures in the low to mid 70s if that happens.
This developing upper-level low will then gradually fill in and flow away on Thursday.
Another system comes in on Friday with another chance for some rain. Again, maybe not on a large scale. Saturday may be our best chance for something more noteworthy with the potential for more widespread storms.
So this is a day that may help ease the stretch of dry weather on a more widespread basis than anything this week.
So there are opportunities this week, but we may wait until Saturday for something more important.
After a few very hot days until tomorrow, we may not see much heat for a while. We were back to 96 degrees on day 5 and if this is the last 90 degree day, it will be a rare early 90 degree+ day for KC. Probably the closest 90 degree+ day in 15 years!
Well that’s all for today. See you again on Wednesday.
Featured image comes from @BlueSpringsWx
Atmosphere
