Who wants rain? San Antonio’s storm chances are increasing on Saturday

San Antonio desperately needs some rain. In the past three months, only 1.16 inches of rain has been recorded at San Antonio International Airport, the city’s official weather monitoring location. This is the lowest amount of rain ever recorded between June 8 and September 8. The most rain came in a single day, when Tropical Storm Harold dropped 0.87 inches on August 22.

Saturday forecast

First, it will be hot, but that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone at this point. Temperatures will drop a few degrees starting Friday, but the Alamo City will still easily reach the triple digits. Temperatures will already be in the mid-90s by noon, with highs reaching 103 degrees by late afternoon. The daily record for September 9 is 102, so we will likely tie or break that record.

Bright sunshine is expected for most of the day, but scattered thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon and evening. They will likely begin developing by 4pm northeast of San Antonio up Interstate 35 toward New Braunfels and San Marcos. Some storms may move south and impact San Antonio between 5 and 10 p.m

The Storm Prediction Center issued a marginal Level 1 risk for severe weather for many parts of Texas, including San Antonio. Some storms can produce wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Axial weather

Rain chances are generally only 20% in San Antonio, so most of us will stay dry. Some storms may be accompanied by strong winds and scattered hailstones. The Storm Prediction Center has listed San Antonio as at a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, which typically means storms will be unorganized or last long. The main threat will be wind gusts up to 60 mph. While some storms could turn severe, widespread severe weather is not expected.

By Sunday, temperatures will drop a little more with highs only remaining closer to 100 degrees. This could end up being the last 100 degree day for at least the next week or so as a cold front is expected next week. There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms again on Sunday, and these odds are around 20%.

Update on the cold front

Everyone has been anticipating next week’s cold front for a few days, but let’s temper our expectations a bit. This cold front won’t make things “cold,” but it will give us some much-needed relief from the scorching summer heat.

By Monday, a cold front will move across the Texas Panhandle. On Tuesday, it will move into central Texas, where it will likely stop just north of San Antonio, keeping high temperatures in the mid-90s.

We still have some inconsistency in the forecast model as to exactly when the cold front will move through San Antonio, but Thursday through Friday is your best bet. High temperatures will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the second half of the week. Although we won’t be dealing with triple digits, it’s not hoodie season just yet.

Rain chances will also accompany this front. On Monday and Tuesday, those chances will be very low due to the location of the front north of San Antonio. However, as the front slowly approaches the city, the chances of rain will increase. The best chances of rain are from Wednesday to Friday, with a 40% chance each day.

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