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Hurricane Beryl Coming to Texas
The biggest player in our forecast is undoubtedly Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall for the second time in Mexico this morning and is now likely to make landfall in Texas sometime Sunday or Monday. While the Texas coast will see the most severe impacts from this storm, Central Texas could also be in for a mix of flash flooding and high winds depending on Beryl’s path after landfall. More on that later.
Cold front approaching today and Saturday
Today's high in Austin will be 102 degrees, the eighth day in a row that temperatures have topped 100 degrees. We won't continue to warm until the ninth day due to a rare July cold front that is slowly moving through Texas.
Today, the front will remain north of Central Texas with the potential for storms along the I-20 corridor in North Texas. There is a chance that some of this rain activity could move into the northern Hill Country late this afternoon and into the evening hours, but the chance is limited to 20-30%.
Saturday It comes with 50% more coverage of afternoon rain and storms. Any rain that does develop could be heavy and persistent in some areas with isolated pockets of 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.
Hurricane Beryl Forecast
Starting Sunday, our forecast will be entirely dependent on what Beryl decides to do. As such, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast as Beryl makes landfall this morning as a Category 2 storm over the Yucatan Peninsula. It will spend the next 12 hours weakening over that land mass before re-emerging over the Gulf of Mexico late tonight.
This is undoubtedly the most important part of Beryl’s life, at least as far as what we will eventually see in Texas. How much does Beryl weaken over the Yucatan? What does its structure look like when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico? Does its center of rotation change along the way? How much will it reorganize itself over the very warm Gulf waters before making landfall in Texas?
These are all huge questions with huge implications for Beryl's future. With that in mind, the uncertainty around the timing, location, and intensity of Beryl as it moves through Texas remains high. More surprises are possible, more adjustments are likely, and we encourage you to stay tuned for these updates as they occur.
timing – Tropical Storm Beryl will be in the Gulf tonight and will spend the next 48 hours in the Gulf before approaching the south/central Texas coast late Sunday or early Monday. Tropical Storm Beryl will continue on a general north/northwesterly track after that, generally heading toward central Texas by Monday night. Depending on how fast it moves, we could continue to see effects from Tropical Storm Beryl through Wednesday of next week.
Effects
Texas Coast – The worst effects of Hurricane Beryl will likely be felt along the Texas coast, where high waves, coastal flooding and damage from wind gusts exceeding 100 mph are expected. These effects will unfold Sunday evening. Heavy rains will also be a major problem, with more than 6 inches possible near or east of the center of Beryl's track.
Central Texas – Locally, our main concern will be the threat of very heavy rainfall and some major flooding. Many data points right now to widespread totals of 4 to 7 inches along and east of Hwy 281 with isolated totals of up to 12 inches not out of the question. Again, this largely depends on where exactly Beryl heads. The eastern side of Beryl’s center of circulation will see the heaviest rainfall and highest totals, and any shift in that path will have a significant impact on our rainfall totals through next week. Currently, we expect the heaviest rainfall locally on Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Replacement card
Environmental conditions around Beryl will be more conducive to its strengthening and organization while in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, the Gulf's extremely warm waters will provide enough fuel for Beryl.
If conditions are right for Beryl, it has the potential to rapidly intensify into a much stronger hurricane than currently forecast. This has been a recurring trend for tropical systems in the Gulf since Hurricane Harvey rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane on its final approach to Texas in August 2017. We are by no means anticipating a repeat of Harvey, but the possibility of a strong (possibly major) hurricane hitting Texas late this week cannot be ruled out.
This is all the more reason, along with the many uncertainties we discussed above, to watch each forecast update closely as it becomes available over the weekend.
Lake level update
Lake Travis drops to an elevation of 634.20 feet (41% full, 33 feet below average)
Lake Buchanan drops to an elevation of 1,008.49 feet (73% full, 4 feet below average)
Total storage capacity has increased to over 900,000 acre-feet. Water use restrictions imposed by the Louisiana Lake Regulatory Authority have been reduced from Phase II to Phase I. However, you should continue to conserve water as much as possible as the upcoming dry season is likely to cause lake levels to drop in the coming months.
