After years of anticipation, the region will finally get more accurate weather forecasts.
The new radar system will fill a gap that previously existed in the system and is expected to greatly improve weather forecasting. The system will have a range of 200 to 250 kilometers, although this image shows only a small range of obstacles encountered at lower altitudes. (Courtesy of Baron Weather)
After years of discussion and planning, Four Corners residents can finally expect more accurate weather forecasts, because La Plata County has signed a contract to purchase and install a weather radar system.
The county board of commissioners signed a contract with Baron Weather of Huntsville, Alabama, on Dec. 2. County spokesman Ted Holten said the county expects contractors to begin work in 2023 as soon as weather permits, though supply chain shortages could delay the project. According to a proposal Baron submitted in September, the entire installation process is supposed to take about nine months, but the company has until March 15, 2024, to complete the project.
The cost of the operational system will not exceed $2,508,152.62. The county received a $1.7 million grant from the Colorado Department of Local Government and will pay the remaining $800,000 from the Capital Improvement Fund.
The system will become part of a broad array of radar technologies across the country that the National Weather Service uses to produce weather forecasts.
The area is currently in the dark for meteorologists. The nearest radar system, in Grand Junction, can’t see the weather coming in the Four Corners because of the curvature of the Earth. The radar travels in a straight line, which means that by the time the beam reaches Durango, it can only see weather at about 28,000 feet or higher.
Grand Junction's radar system fails to detect most storms in the Four Corners area because of the curvature of the Earth. (Durango Herald file photo)
This has historically been a problem for meteorologists. Almost every snowstorm passes below what radar can see, said Jeff Colton, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
“The snow is usually very shallow, and the clouds are much thinner or shallower in the atmosphere, so it’s very difficult for us to detect snow in the Four Corners,” Colton said. “This will definitely be helpful in the winter. It will also be helpful year-round, really, because we’ll be able to see more of the depth of the storms. We can see the tops of a lot of storms, but this will help fill in that gap and tell us if the storm is dry in the lows or is it wet? Is it producing rain or is it just going to be strong winds and outflow, which could be fire weather concerns, things like that.”
The technology will be housed inside a large circular equipment shelter atop a 70-foot tower at Durango-La Plata County Airport. The county selected the site in February after extensive study.
“It’s an area that has eventually come to the forefront and risen to the top because of the ease of access to facilities,” said Tony Vicari, the airport’s aviation director.
The radar won't pass over or around mountains. Given the terrain around the site, there will be some obstructions to the north and south at the lowest elevations, but Colton said that shouldn't be a problem.
Surveys at higher elevations of 2 and 2.5 degrees will be able to see beyond the terrain blocks, Colton said. Summer thunderstorms typically move from the southwest to the northeast anyway, and winter snowstorms come from anywhere between the southwest and southeast.
“This would definitely be an improvement over what we have now,” Colton said.
The system is supposed to have an accurate range of 200 to 250 kilometers, said John Tarleton, vice president of integrated weather systems at Barron Weather. The system’s internal electronics will be on par with most National Weather Service radar stations across the country, he added.
Baron Weather will install a 70-foot tower at the Durango-La Plata County Airport that will house the new radar system the county purchased. (Courtesy of Baron Weather)
“I think this will definitely be a very big improvement for the consumer,” Holten said.
The impact of improved weather forecasts will extend beyond just the weather app on your phone. Vicari, the airport’s aviation director, expects it will also help free up staff for snow removal operations.
“We're basically, to some extent, guessing when we can expect the snow events in particular to end,” he said.
While most aircraft have onboard radar systems that allow them to see weather patterns, that’s not always the case. Vicari also said that despite the technology on board, improved forecasts in the region could have other benefits for airlines.
“That would greatly improve the ability of airline dispatch centers to forecast ahead and see convective storms in real time and make better decisions about when to delay aircraft or take alternate routes — things like that,” he said.
But Colton cautioned that the benefits won’t be immediate. Weather forecasts are produced using a complex set of predictive models that draw on countless data points. It will take a year or two before the models adapt to the new data inputs and are able to produce more accurate forecasts.
“Computers are starting to see patterns and areas where storms typically develop, and that should help high-resolution computer models that like to see storms developing along mountain ranges,” Colton said. “They’ll be able to see those storms forming regularly there now. The software is learning, and it’s getting smarter over time.”
rschafir@durangoherald.com
